The ongoing cotton season in Pakistan continues to paint a bleak picture for the country’s textile industry and farmers. The latest report from the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA), released on December 15, highlights a 33.11% year-on-year decline in cotton arrivals, deepening concerns for one of the country’s critical agricultural commodities.
Dramatic Drop in Arrivals
According to the PCGA, total cotton arrivals this season have reached 5.367 million bales, down significantly from 8.023 million bales recorded during the same period last year. This reflects a decrease of 2.656 million bales. The fortnightly report ending December 15, 2024, recorded 0.176 million bales, a 34.6% drop compared to 0.27 million bales in the same period last year.
Provincial Breakdown
The decline is evident across both major cotton-producing provinces:
- Punjab saw a 33.44% drop in arrivals, with total production at 2.593 million bales.
- Sindh recorded a 31.8% decline, though it slightly outpaced Punjab with 2.773 million bales.
This shift is significant as Punjab, traditionally the leading cotton-producing region, now lags behind Sindh in total output.
Causes of the Decline
Several interconnected factors are contributing to this crisis:
- Low Market Prices: Farmers are discouraged from investing in cotton due to low profitability.
- Inconsistent Policies: Ambiguity in government policies further hampers cotton cultivation.
- Agricultural Practices: Issues like early planting, poor fertilization, and substandard farming techniques reduce yields.
- Climate Change: Erratic weather patterns, ranging from droughts to heavy rains, damage crops.
- Pest Infestations and Diseases: Inadequate pest control and crop diseases continue to threaten output.
- Irrigation Issues: Insufficient water management exacerbates production challenges.
Impact on the Textile Industry
The decline in cotton production poses significant threats to Pakistan’s textile industry, which relies heavily on domestic cotton. Potential consequences include:
- Disruption of Supply Chains: Reduced cotton supply may lead to raw material shortages.
- Export Instability: Lower cotton output could impact textile export volumes and revenue.
- Market Instability: Price fluctuations may destabilize both domestic and international markets.
Future Concerns
Experts warn that if these challenges persist, more farmers may shift to alternative crops, further threatening the revival of the cotton sector. Addressing these issues will require comprehensive policy reforms, improved agricultural practices, and support for farmers to ensure the sustainability of Pakistan’s cotton industry.