Israel’s recent invasion of Lebanon, coupled with Iran’s missile assault, has significantly increased the potential for widespread conflict in the Middle East amid ongoing violence in Gaza. Despite diplomatic efforts to ease tensions, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres has warned of a “sickening cycle of escalation.”
Analysts have been assessing the situation and its implications:
Will Israel Retaliate?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu condemned Iran’s missile attack, stating, “Iran made a big mistake tonight and will pay for it.” According to David Khalfa, a Middle East expert, Israel has no choice but to respond to the Iranian strike due to its scale and the nature of the targets, which now include sensitive military sites. This incident marks Iran’s second direct attack on Israel, with a previous incident in April leading to a measured Israeli retaliation.
Analysts predict a significantly more substantial Israeli response this time, although the Jewish New Year celebrations might delay immediate action. However, experts believe retaliation is likely to occur soon.
What Are Israel’s Options?
Following the Iranian attack, some Israeli officials see a “historic opportunity” to take decisive action against Iran. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has called for strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, which Israel views as a major threat. However, many of these facilities are deeply buried, complicating potential military actions.
U.S. President Joe Biden has advised Israel to respond in proportion, although Netanyahu has historically disregarded such guidance. Possible Israeli actions could include targeted assassinations, strikes on Iranian facilities, or cyberattacks. Discussions about potential strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure have also raised crude oil prices.
Khalfa notes that the conflict has escalated from a low-intensity confrontation to open warfare, potentially leading to a regional war of attrition.
Do Iran and Israel Want War?
Citrinowicz indicates that Iran has considered its strategy and is prepared for swift retaliation against any Israeli actions. Sima Shine, another expert, emphasizes Iran’s considerable destructive capabilities, including the ability to launch hundreds of missiles and drones.
Both Iran and Israel have insisted they do not seek to escalate into a full-blown war, but the current situation remains precarious. Israel is engaged in multiple military operations, including combating Hamas in Gaza and fighting Hezbollah in Lebanon, while facing attacks from other armed groups across the region.
Ultimately, both nations may seek a political solution, possibly facilitated by the U.S. and France, to restore stability.
