Options trading signals Nvidia shares could swing about 6% in either direction after the chipmaker reports quarterly earnings on Wednesday, according to market data. That projected move is below the company’s long-term average of 7%, suggesting investors feel more confident about expectations as Nvidia matures.
“The ripples out of Nvidia might be more interesting than the actual move for Nvidia,” said Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives strategy at Susquehanna. He noted that while speculative AI stocks have retreated in recent months, Nvidia is trading just below its record high. Strong results, he added, could help revive interest in beaten-down AI names.
Data from ORATS shows that over the past 12 quarters, Nvidia’s implied earnings move averaged 7.7%, with an average actual swing of 7.6%.
After a blistering rally that fueled broader market gains this year, the technology sector has cooled in recent weeks as enthusiasm waned. Traders are watching Nvidia closely to judge whether its $4 trillion market valuation remains justified and to gauge how a recent revenue-sharing agreement with the U.S. government may impact forecasts.
So far in 2025, Nvidia shares have climbed 34%, closing Monday at $179.81, up 1.02%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 fell 0.43% to 6,439.32 but remains up 9.5% year-to-date.
“It’s been an amazing run,” said Matt Amberson, founder of ORATS. “It’s just a Goldilocks time for Nvidia.”
