Goldman Sachs has revised its year-end 2025 gold price forecast to $3,100 per ounce, up from its previous estimate of $2,890, citing sustained demand from central banks. The investment bank estimates that increased central bank purchases will contribute a 9% boost to gold prices, further supported by rising ETF holdings as interest rates decline.
If policy uncertainty—such as trade tariffs—persists, Goldman sees gold potentially surging to $3,300 per ounce due to prolonged speculative buying. The bank has also raised its central bank demand assumption from 41 to 50 tonnes per month, with a scenario of 70 tonnes per month possibly pushing gold to $3,200 per ounce.
Should the Federal Reserve maintain steady interest rates, Goldman expects gold to reach $3,060 per ounce by the end of 2025. The bank reiterated its “Go for Gold” trading recommendation, emphasizing that while declining uncertainty may cause short-term pullbacks, gold remains a strong hedge against trade tensions, recession risks, and financial instability.
Furthermore, if concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability escalate, Goldman projects an additional 5% price increase, bringing gold to $3,250 per ounce by December 2025. Rising fears of inflation and U.S. debt risks could further fuel speculative buying and central bank gold purchases, particularly among nations holding large U.S. Treasury reserves.
