Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) risks losing its majority in the lower house of parliament in the upcoming October 27 election, according to recent media polling. The Nikkei newspaper reported that the LDP may fall short of the 233 seats required for a majority in the 465-seat chamber, potentially forcing the party to depend more heavily on its coalition partner, Komeito, to maintain power.
The LDP has controlled the lower house since 2012, after returning from a three-year stint in opposition. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s government already relies on Komeito for a majority in the upper house, and losing control of the lower house would further increase Komeito’s influence on key policy decisions. Komeito, backed by Japan’s largest Buddhist lay organization, has historically been more cautious about hawkish security policies, such as expanding Japan’s military capabilities and lifting restrictions on arms exports.
Political analyst Michael Cucek from Temple University in Tokyo believes the LDP will still secure a majority with Komeito’s support but adds that the coalition partner will gain greater leverage, potentially curbing some of the LDP’s more aggressive defense policies.
Nobuyuki Baba, leader of the Japan Innovation Party, has indicated that his party, which is the third-largest group in the lower house, may be open to working with the LDP after the election. Baba has expressed support for expanding Japan’s military capabilities and amending the pacifist constitution to formally recognize the armed forces.
Polls conducted by Nikkei, Yomiuri, and other media outlets suggest the LDP could lose about 30 seats, while Komeito may also lose a small number. The LDP’s previous leader, Fumio Kishida, resigned last month amid a series of funding scandals, prompting Ishiba to dissolve the lower house on October 9, setting the stage for the snap election.
