Professor Geoffrey Hinton, a Nobel Prize-winning computer scientist often called the “Godfather of AI,” has raised his estimate of the likelihood that artificial intelligence could lead to human extinction within the next 30 years. Previously pegging the risk at 10%, Hinton now believes there is a 10–20% chance, citing the unprecedented pace of AI development.
A Warning from an AI Pioneer
Speaking on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, Hinton expressed concern about AI systems surpassing human intelligence, saying:
“You see, we’ve never had to deal with things more intelligent than ourselves before.”
Drawing a striking analogy, he compared the dynamic between humans and AI to that of a mother and baby—one of the rare instances where a less intelligent entity influences a more intelligent one.
Accelerating Change and Unfinished Research
Hinton highlighted how quickly AI has advanced, outpacing his expectations. This rapid evolution, he believes, has left insufficient time for crucial research on ensuring AI safety.
“Most experts in the field think that sometime, within probably the next 20 years, we’re going to develop AIs that are smarter than people. And that’s a very scary thought.”
The Industrial Revolution Parallels
Hinton likened AI’s transformative impact to the industrial revolution, which diminished the importance of human physical strength:
“What we’ve got now is something that’s replacing human intelligence… just ordinary human intelligence will not be at the cutting edge anymore. It will be machines.”
Advocating for Safer AI
While Hinton’s pioneering work laid the foundation for machine learning, he has since focused on the ethical and safety challenges of AI. His concerns led him to resign from Google last year, warning that “bad actors” could exploit the technology for harm.
Calls for Caution
Hinton’s warnings underscore the need for vigilance in AI development. He emphasized the importance of being “very careful” and “very thoughtful” about the technology, urging researchers and policymakers to prioritize safety as AI continues to evolve.
As the prospect of AI surpassing human intelligence becomes increasingly plausible, Hinton’s insights highlight the urgency of addressing the ethical, societal, and existential risks posed by this powerful technology.
