China has revised its 2023 gross domestic product (GDP) upward by 2.7%, adding 3.4 trillion yuan ($17.73 trillion), according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Despite this adjustment, officials assert it will have minimal impact on next year’s growth trajectory, as policymakers focus on driving expansion in 2025.
Key Highlights
- Revised GDP for 2023: The economy’s size now stands at 129.4 trillion yuan, reflecting resilience amid internal and external challenges over the past five years, including the COVID-19 pandemic and shifting global conditions.
- Historical Comparisons: Similar revisions were made during past economic censuses, with a 2.1% adjustment for 2018 and a 3.4% increase for 2013.
- Growth Prospects for 2024: The revision is not expected to significantly impact the GDP growth rate for 2024, which remains pegged at “around 5%.”
Policy Measures and Challenges
- Stimulus Plans: Leaders have pledged to increase the budget deficit, issue more debt, and loosen monetary policy to counter economic headwinds, including trade tensions with the U.S. under President-elect Donald Trump.
- Budget Deficit: Reports indicate a planned increase to 4% of GDP in 2024, the highest on record, as part of efforts to sustain growth.
Sectoral Shifts and Employment Trends
- Business Growth: The number of entities in secondary and tertiary industries grew by 52.7% between 2018 and 2023, though employment growth lagged at 11.9%.
- Employment in Property: The ongoing property sector crisis saw employment in real estate firms drop by 27%, reflecting broader economic struggles in this area.
- Sectoral Employment Trends:
- Tertiary industries (e.g., retail, finance, transport): Employment rose by 25.6%.
- Secondary industries (e.g., manufacturing, construction): Employment fell by 4.8%.
Long-Term Vision
The economic census will guide China’s 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) and support President Xi Jinping’s goal of doubling the economy’s size by 2035. Achieving this target requires an average annual growth of 4.7%, a rate viewed by many external analysts as ambitious amid prevailing challenges.
The World Bank has raised its growth forecast for China in 2024 and 2025 but cautioned that subdued household and business confidence, alongside the property sector slump, could hinder economic performance.
